Optimal Team Pick
Drivers
Constructors
Top 5 Configurations
Premium Builds (>$95M)
Balanced Builds (2 Stars + 3 Budget)
Driver Rankings
| Rank | Driver | Team | Gap | Price | Est Pts | Pts/$M | Tier |
|---|
Constructor Rankings
| Constructor | Driver 1 | Driver 2 | Combined Pts | Price | Pts/$M |
|---|
Driver Bias Correction
How each driver systematically over/underperforms their practice pace. Positive = finishes better than practice suggests.
| Driver | Avg Bias | Races | Trend |
|---|
2025 Season Backtest
How the model would have performed picking teams for every 2025 race using only practice data available before qualifying.
| Race | Picked Pts | Best Pts | Capture | Team |
|---|
Calibration Curve
Average actual fantasy points earned per predicted finishing position, learned from 2025 data.
How It Works
Data Collection
Practice session laptimes are pulled from TracingInsights for FP1, FP2, and FP3. Both single-lap pace and long-run degradation are captured.
Session Weighting
A grid search over the full 2025 season finds optimal weights for each practice metric. FP3 best lap (40%) is the strongest predictor, followed by FP2 best lap (25%).
Calibrated Point Estimation
Instead of a formula, the model uses empirical calibration from 2025. For each predicted position, it looks up the average actual fantasy points earned historically, then applies per-driver bias correction.
Budget-Constrained Optimization
Brute-force search over all valid team combinations: 5 drivers + 2 constructors within $100M. Evaluates ~1.4M combinations, pruned by cost constraints, to find the maximum expected point total.
2026 Fantasy Scoring
Drivers
| Race P1-P10 | 25, 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1 |
| Quali P1-P10 | 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 |
| Position gained | +1 per position |
| Overtake | +1 per overtake |
| Fastest lap | +10 |
| Driver of the Day | +10 |
| DNF / NC | -20 |
| Sprint P1-P8 | 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 |
Constructors
| Both drivers Q3 | +10 |
| Both drivers Q2 | +5 |
| One driver Q3 | +3 |
| Pit stop < 2.2s | +10 |
| Pit stop 2.2-2.49s | +5 |
| Pit stop 2.5-2.99s | +2 |
| Fastest pit stop | +5 bonus |
| Record pit stop (<1.8s) | +15 bonus |
Team Management
| Budget | $100M |
| Roster | 5 drivers + 2 constructors |
| Free transfers | 2 per weekend |
| Extra transfer | -10 pts each |
| Boost chip | Doubles 1 driver |
Known Limitations
- Wet race weekends where practice is dry break the model's predictions
- Multi-car incidents and penalties are unpredictable from practice data
- No qualifying data — quali positions are estimated from practice pace
- Sprint weekends with reduced practice sessions change scoring dynamics
- British GP-type chaos races achieve only ~55% capture rate